Inflation is not doing what it’s supposed to and everyone’s talking about it. By now (actually since November when we look back at forecasts) we should be on an inflation downhill. Gentle, granted, but definitely down.

But the message doesn’t seem to have been received as it hovers at 3%, defying the odds and, when we strip out volatile and seasonal items in the consumer price index, core inflation is actually up a touch. The case is strengthening for almost inevitable interest rate increases until inflation starts with a two. It’s coming, the only question remains how soon and how much.

 

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